Sabtu, 26 Maret 2011

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PDF Ebook

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File Size: 3735 KB

Print Length: 12 pages

Publication Date: April 26, 2018

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B07CPXX15S

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#285,701 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

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Senin, 21 Maret 2011

Ebook Download Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1

Ebook Download Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1


Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1


Ebook Download Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Incerto, Book 1

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 8 hours and 57 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Random House Audio

Audible.com Release Date: January 8, 2019

Whispersync for Voice: Ready

Language: English, English

ASIN: B07KRN227R

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. In multiple ways. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to weave a fantastically engaging and entertaining book out of what could very easily be a dry and technical topic is just icing in the cake.I've read all four of Taleb's books and Fooled By Randomness still stands out as my favorite. Although Black Swan is still the most popular, and most controversial, Fooled in many ways is the most practical, as it's the most general and therefore most widely applicable. Everyone should deeply understand the survivorship and hindsight biases, as well as the difference between conditional and unconditional probability.That being said, it's often hard to determine whether the heart of the book is the ideas (which to someone such as myself who has only a Stats 101 background in probability are almost always revelation-inducing) or the author. I can't stress how much I learned from this book that has nothing to do with probability or statistics, just random asides from an erudite and meandering mind. Regardless of your background (or even your interest in probability) you will probable learn some fascinating and/or useful tidbit from Fooled, and probably a whole lot more.

Bad news. You are a fool about to be fooled. Again. And again. Just like everybody else. We are a species of fools. What a circus! But Taleb is a special kind of fool, foolish enough to write an essay on how randomness fools us. Interesting fool, nay? The whole thing feels like a foolish attempt to make us better fools. Even his methodology writing this book is foolish. Speaking his mind and having fun. Fool, fOOl, FOOL! Outrageous even for a brave fool. If you don't take yourself too seriously (say a foolish fool), this book is damn entertaining. Otherwise, this book is very insulting for serious fools. Seems that our carbon-based machinery fails us dealing with the abstract tools (say probability theory) we have been developing to understand nature (say since Pythagoras; just to finish with a foolish guess). Enjoy, you fool.

I know many I think might profit from reading this book. I know few who'd be likely to agree with my assessment, especially after they had read it. With that in mind, how many stars does it deserve? I like it better than the Black Swan.The author has thought deeply about risk and uncertainty. Before reading this I thought I had too. No longer. Perhaps reading this while young would produce a more positive asessment of its value but in one's later years it is more depressing than enlightening. Yes, most of us are fools so what's new in that? Will any readers be made less foolish by reading this? That is really the question.

I really like Nassim's rebel disposition and skepticism when it comes to science. I do, like many people, lean on science to get me closer to the truth. Sometimes too much. Nassim challenges this position based on his experience as a trader and what he's observed over the course of his life. He demonstrates how theories may simply be the theorizer being fooled by random events. That is, the common problem of correlation being mistaken for causation. He's certainly changed my mindset to be more skeptical of elaborate theorizing and to look at the world with more of a bottom-up approach. That is, if something works, knowing the theory of why, doesn't make it necessarily any more valid.

Taleb is of course famous for avoiding bull or bear trend naked bets and protecting himself for black swan events like big bank crashes. His revision of this book was needed but is long read for non-academics.Somewhat personal lifestyle story but serious warnings like those of George E P Box that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." But Taleb adds that modern derivatives and options that lose most of the time but win big infrequently are a great strategy for those with means and patience while crashes wipe out the rest of the naked speculators big time. Enjoyed the ideas and stories. Academics will appreciate the well selected references and explanations of why only are a few have "useful models" in the big human-centric gambling casino that is Wall Street. Economics in general is a fuzzy world to model compared to more deterministic factory machines. So don't stop using statistical methods in that latter world. But protect yourself from human factors in the financial world..

I can tolerate the ego-maniacal writing style, but I cannot abide the enormous errors the author commits when he delves into science.To wit: Taleb posits that Einstein proved Newton wrong. Not true. Einstein showed that Newtonian mechanics failed at the extremes - extremely large (cosmologic) and extremely small (atomic distances). Further, he posits that the poor schlep scientist's odds of success continue to increase as he does more mouse experiments. Untrue if the hypothesis under which the scientist is proceeding is ultimately incorrect. And finally, the author accepts global warming as a given and castigates science for not having recognized the truth of it from random weather events. Taleb, stick your knitting. It's one thing to be ignorant, but another to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

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Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

Free PDF The Circuit

Free PDF The Circuit

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The Circuit

The Circuit


The Circuit


Free PDF The Circuit

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The Circuit

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 28 hours and 46 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Podium Publishing

Audible.com Release Date: July 3, 2018

Whispersync for Voice: Ready

Language: English, English

ASIN: B07DLB5MJW

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

This is some of the best SF I have read lately. The stories are set in the distant future, with the Earth uninhabitable and human settlements on the Moon and Mars, as well as on numerous asteroids. A scientist believes that man's reverence for the uninhabitable Earth is holding him back, and seeks to destroy the Earth. There are three main characters (four if you count an android) and the author does an excellent job of shifting the plot back and forth among them, while building a consistent overall story. The only weak part is that all the main characters are able to suffer horrific physical injury, yet come back for more - much like the heroes in old westerns. Although there is considerable violence, it is not gratuitous, and I did not find it disturbing. Recommended.

Rhett delivers a fast-paced, dystopian, gray-morality thriller in the Circuit Trilogy. Having read science fiction for over 30 years, it is refreshing to find new authors with the talent to create characters that you'll remember after putting their books down. Rhett delivers here: from a broken-hearted megalomaniacal savior, to a brain-hijacked, religious assassin to a pirate father who is desperate to save his innocent daughter, you'll find gems of humanity in this story about so much inhumanity.

I loved the book from beginning to end. The characters jumped out of the pages with a life of their own that was slowly revealed. Even ADIM, a lifeless Android, came to life in a way that I could identify with him. The story line was intriguing, unique and full of adventure and excitement.A true epic along the lines of the old books and movies such as Gone With the Wind and Exodus. I couldn't review this series as a three book series but as a single book with a bridge in the middle that connects the two main books. For me it was a masterpiece of creative writing. In summation, I loved it and want more from this author.

Very, well written. I read the complete Circuit Trilogy in a little over a week. It was difficult for me to put it down. The book was full of action, twists, and drama, but it was nicely paced. The story gets told from a couple of the character’s viewpoints, which I enjoyed. It wasn’t predictable and the finish, gives a sense of closure while also opening the door for more. Pick up the trilogy and enjoy some binge reading....

As a story it's OK. As Science Fiction it's trash. His "science" made this exceedingly difficult for this retired engineer to read. It seems like every couple paragraphs I had whatever suspension of disbelief uprooted by something outrageous. I stuck with it through the end, As a people story, it was OK but nothing to write home about. I made the mistake of reading it through hard-SF filters because of its setting and tone. I could not read it as 50s SF, which it so resembled, because it has too many elements of modern days in it. I could not read it as modern SF because it just doesn't read that way. And it has too much SF to it that it does not fall into the range my brain accepts as total fantasy.The author was reared on too much "Million Dollar Man". It shows in his lack of understanding of how strength works. The strongest arm in the universe is useless if it is part of a normal human body. It would rip itself out of is placement on the human carrying it with just half the things Sage did in the story.Fortunately it was cheap - or I'd be even more scathing in my review.{^_^}

Rhett Bruno’s Circuit Trilogy could be described as many things. It has been compared to the Expanse, and there ARE parallels. But if you ask me, the three books of the Circuit Trilogy are much better. In a similar way to Corey, Bruno has the ability to paint a picture almost like you are watching a movie, like you are really experiencing the action. I think Bruno’s characters are actually just as flawed, but come to life even more. One of the things that I like the most about this writer is that he actually shows you what’s happening, he doesn’t TELL you what’s happening. For example, disgraced General Cassius Vale, fed up with the Earth Tribune, a kind of quasi-para-military organization steeped and disguised in pseudo religious doctrine, creates a self-aware android named ADIM. ADIM is kind of a like a surrogate for Cassius’s late son Caleb. As you get into the books of the trilogy, you find out more and more how and why the characters lives and story lines are intertwined. That’s part of why it becomes nearly impossible to put the books down. In fact I fell asleep reading more than once and was sleep deprived for over a week. Sucks when you can’t get enough sleep, people at work tell you how tired you look, you SWEAR no reading tonight, and there you are... just one more chapter... just one more... I swear, it becomes an addiction, but I guess I could be addicted to something worse. Right?But I digress: When I wrote that Rhett shows you a character, not tells you, I refer to the description of ADIM’s eyes. The more he thinks, the more the little lights around the main optics dance and speed up their motion. So by the time I started to get to know ADIM, I KNEW he was thinking harder by how fast his eyes were spinning around. Not because the writer told me he was thinking hard.This omnibus edition will do you a great favor. You can read the three books separately and you certainly don’t have to read them in order. BUT, they are all right here in the omnibus, and you are not going to be able to wait and fend off the cravings and urges to know more about what happens next unless you read the books, read them in order, and then the whole cinemgraphic choreography unfolds as a gestalt and makes sense, and comes to a satisfying conclusion.How much did I love this trilogy? Rhett provided an ARC - Advanced Reader Copy to me for no charge since he respects my opinions and feedback - for what they are worth. But I loved the stories so much, and wish to show my support for this outstanding up and coming young author so much that I felt compelled to purchase the Complete Circuit Trilogy set under absolutely no duress, and I’m glad I did. Maybe I can get a digital autograph from him some day.Folks, I think we have the beginnings of a Robert A. Heinlein here. A Cliff Simack, dare I say the great Asimov himself? I dare. This guy is better than good, he’s phenomenal. Maybe it’s his profession as an architect, so he knows how things fit together, combined with the right upbringing or the climate in New England, I don’t know, I’m a reviewer not a sooth-sayer.I do know good, high octane, high quality writing when I see it, and when I read it, and I am really, really impressed with this writer. He’s got what it takes. Do yourself a favor. Try a sample. Or just go for it. At only a pittance at the moment, the price you pay will be long forgotten but the story and the characters will linger forever. Caution, you may become addicted. I know I did.

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